Answers in an uncertain World

This was the theme for Intaglio 2009-10. (To know more about Intaglio visit http://iimc-intaglio.com). This theme aptly resonates the World we live in. But the thought to ponder is - Was this World ever certain? Why has the uncertainty part of it gained prominence only in the recent past? Today as part of Olympus (the flagship event of Intaglio), I witnessed 6 brilliant minds from top notch B-Schools battling each other trying to draw the attention of the audience to the uncertainties of the World. I wish to take their discussion to the next level. If we agree that there are uncertainties in the World, how do we mitigate them? More importantly, do we actually want a World without uncertainties?

Uncertainties surround us in whatever we do. Our very existence is in a way uncertain because no one has been able to predict death with certainty. Even the best of doctors can’t give a definite time for a person counting his last breaths. Probability governs the laws of the World and hence forms an important aspect of business studies. Our genders, our education, location of birth – aspects which substantially define what we are – cannot be controlled by us. In the business arena companies operate on probabilities of market share, markets operate on probability and deals are done based on trust. Effectively there is hardly anything other than 2+2=4 which is certain.

Mitigating these uncertainties is difficult to say the least. Technology has played a major role in our progress to this end. However, beyond a certain point technology is helpless. You may determine the gender of a child before birth, but you cannot determine what kind of a student he will make. Would he have the qualities of his father or his mother? Reducing uncertainty is definitely helpful. It provides leverage to plan better. A simple example is, knowing the date of your exams (you know your sleepless nights). Compare that with a surprise quiz announcement made at the beginning of the term. Managers, leaders, people in general who deal with uncertainty all strive to bring some semblance to the totally unpredictable World around them.

However, the underlying fact is that uncertainties cannot be completely done away with. And would we want that to happen? Imagine knowing the results of all the cricket matches before hand. How would we enjoy the nail-biting finishes with Kaif and Yuvraj hitting the winning runs with just 2 balls to spare? The impact on business would be adverse to say the least. Outcomes of deals would be known before hand. Markets will cease to function. There will be total mayhem. It would be similar to knowing your future and I am sure that many of us would not be comfortable knowing that.

Reducing uncertainties then implies – preparing ourselves better to face the challenges thrown at us. Finding answers in an uncertain World with the intent to reduce uncertainty would simply be futile. A better leader is one who is prepared to retaliate to any eventuality. The answers to such situations are also uncertain and are bound to change with time. Perhaps a good way to improve yourself as a leader is to try and work out a plan of action for all eventualities. These thoughts will also encourage leaders to develop and increase their foresight and react with enough time on hand.